Stop Guessing. Start Calculating.
"Is this keyword worth targeting?"
Most people answer this with gut feeling.
After 500+ campaigns, we answer it with math.
The Keyword ROI Formula
Estimated Annual Traffic x Conversion Rate x Average Customer Value = Keyword Revenue Potential
Then compare that to the Cost of Content Creation.
If Revenue Potential > Cost: go.
If Revenue Potential < Cost: pass.
Let's Walk Through an Example
Keyword: "best CRM for small business"
Monthly volume: 2,000
Target position: #3
Expected CTR: 8%
Monthly traffic: 160 visitors
Annual traffic: 1,920 visitors
Conversion rate (visitor to trial): 3%
Annual conversions: 57.6 trials
Trial to paid rate: 20%
Annual customers: 11.5
Average customer value: $1,200/year
Annual keyword revenue: $13,800
Cost to create and maintain the content: ~$2,000/year
ROI: 590%
That keyword is worth targeting. Obviously.
When the Math Says No
Keyword: "what is CRM"
Monthly volume: 10,000
Target position: #5
Expected CTR: 4%
Monthly traffic: 400
Annual traffic: 4,800
Conversion rate: 0.3% (informational intent, very low)
Annual conversions: 14.4 trials
Trial to paid: 20%
Annual customers: 2.9
Annual keyword revenue: $3,480
Still positive, but the ROI is much lower. And the keyword is harder to rank for.
This keyword is worth doing, but it's lower priority than the commercial keyword above.
The Insight
High volume doesn't mean high ROI.
Keywords closest to the purchase decision almost always have the best ROI, even with lower volume. CPC data is another powerful indicator — if advertisers pay $15 per click, the keyword prints money.
Calculate Before You Create
Use this framework for every keyword you consider. It takes 5 minutes and saves months of wasted effort. This feeds directly into your keyword forecasting process. SEMrush covers similar ROI frameworks in their keyword research methodology.
SEO Checkup helps you make strategic keyword decisions. 113 tasks. Free. No credit card. 30 seconds.